EMEP Risk Register

Risk register for EMEP with risk IDs, descriptions, likelihood, impact, owners, mitigations, and status aligned with failure modes.

The risk register is the single source of truth for all identified risks in EMEP. Each entry links to a failure mode where applicable and tracks current status.

Risk Table

ID	Description	Likelihood	Impact	Owner	Mitigation	Status
RISK-001	MergeEngine GPU OOM during large model merge	4	4	ML Infra	Retry with reduced memory, queue to larger GPU	MITIGATED
RISK-002	Incompatible models selected for merge	3	2	ML Engineering	Compatibility check before GPU allocation	MITIGATED
RISK-003	ArtifactStore corruption or bit rot	2	5	Infra	Checksums, replicas, backup strategy	MITIGATED
RISK-004	BenchmarkEngine backend crash mid-evaluation	3	3	ML Infra	Retry on different node, health checks	MITIGATED
RISK-005	EvolutionEngine stagnation with no fitness improvement	3	3	ML Engineering	Diversity injection, mutation rate tuning	OPEN
RISK-006	ExperimentTracker database unavailability	2	4	Infra	Replicas, read-only fallback, caching	MITIGATED
RISK-007	Invalid tokenizer blocks model validation	2	2	ML Engineering	Validation at import, clear error messages	MITIGATED
RISK-008	Network partition between core services	2	4	Infra	Retry with backoff, service mesh health checks	MITIGATED
RISK-009	Catastrophic forgetting in fine-tuned specialist	3	3	ML Engineering	Regression eval, forgetting controls, EWC	MITIGATED
RISK-010	New dependency CVE introduced in CI	3	3	Security	Daily scans, CI gate, local CVE DB for offline	MITIGATED
RISK-011	Quantization engine numerical overflow	2	3	ML Engineering	NaN/Inf detection, fallback to higher bit width	MITIGATED
RISK-012	Unauthorized access to proprietary model weights	2	5	Security	RBAC, signed artifacts, audit logging	MITIGATED
RISK-013	Hidden Test Set leakage to EvolutionEngine	1	5	ML Engineering	Strict split enforcement, access controls	MITIGATED
RISK-014	Model supply chain compromise (tampered weights)	2	5	Security	Signature verification, manifest checks, quarantine	MITIGATED
RISK-015	GPU orchestrator scheduling deadlock	2	4	Infra	Timeout-based preemption, resource quotas	OPEN
RISK-016	Offline deployment package missing dependencies	2	3	Infra	Dependency bundling, manifest validation, smoke tests	MITIGATED
RISK-017	Reproducibility failure due to nondeterministic backend	3	3	ML Engineering	Deterministic seeds, fixed backend versions, bit-for-bit tests	OPEN
RISK-018	Alerting fatigue from noisy failure detection	3	2	Infra	Alert grouping, severity tuning, on-call rotation	OPEN
RISK-019	Regulatory compliance failure for deployed model	1	5	Security	License scanning, safety evaluation, audit trail	MITIGATED
RISK-020	Disaster recovery failure (backup unrecoverable)	1	5	Infra	Regular restore drills, backup verification, offsite copies	MITIGATED

Severity Distribution

Severity	Count
Critical (17-25)	0
High (10-16)	4
Medium (5-9)	10
Low (1-4)	6

Open Risks Requiring Attention

The following risks are OPEN and have active mitigation plans:

• RISK-005: EvolutionEngine stagnation. Mitigation plan: implement diversity metrics and adaptive mutation rate. Target: MITIGATED by Phase 3.
• RISK-015: GPU orchestrator scheduling deadlock. Mitigation plan: add timeout-based preemption and resource quota enforcement. Target: MITIGATED by Phase 2.
• RISK-017: Reproducibility failure. Mitigation plan: lock backend versions and add bit-for-bit regression tests. Target: MITIGATED by Phase 2.
• RISK-018: Alerting fatigue. Mitigation plan: implement alert grouping and severity tuning. Target: MITIGATED by Phase 1.

Integration Points

• Failure Modes: risks RISK-001 through RISK-012 map directly to failure modes FM-001 through FM-012. See Failure Modes.
• Risk Management: scoring and review cadence are defined in Risk Management.
• Project Management: open risks are tracked as tasks with owners and deadlines. See Project Management.
• KPI Specification: risk reduction velocity is a tracked metric. See KPI Specification.